Well, U Conn gets beat this weekend in a hard fought and entertaining game at Pitt. This is the second time Pitt has beaten UConn this season, both times when UConn was ranked #1 in the polls. North Carolina was the pre-season #1. Then UNC went on to hold that position for the next 7 weeks. In the last 9 weeks, there have been 6 changes in the #1 ranking. After UNC lost, Pitt held it for 2 weeks, then Wake Forest for a week, Duke for a week, UConn for 3 weeks, Pitt again for a week, and finally UConn for this past week. With UConn’s loss Saturday, another new #1 is coming up this week.
Kind of a kiss of death, this number one ranking this year. I am not sure I would want to get the #1 ranking if I was one the coaches of one of the contenders. What does this all mean, this continuing revolving door? And how does it compare to recent past years?
In the 2007-08 season, there were 2 changes by this point of the season (week16). UNC was #1, replaced by Memphis, and then Tennessee. In the 2006-07 season there were 4 changes involving 4 teams, Florida twice, UNC, UCLA, and Ohio State. In the 2005-06 season, there were 2 changes involving only 2 teams, Duke twice, and UConn. In the 2004-05 season, there was one change, with Illinois replacing Wake Forest. During the 2003-04 season there were 7 changes at the top, involving 7 teams. UConn(twice), Kansas, Florida, Kentucky(sharing with UConn), Duke, Stanford, and St. Joseph’s all were number one at some point.
So what does it mean? Probably not much, but I keep hearing from the pundits that it means there are a lot of great teams out there. I don’t agree. I think it is similar to when one is looking at a team’s roster. If a coach or GM is having trouble figuring out who are going to be the starters, it is my experience that that team is on its way to mediocrity. You just don’t see teams with that much quality depth, where there is confusion between who is a starter or 6th man, and who will not be in the rotation. Great teams come into seasons with solid rotations. There is no confusion about who should play. Good cream tends to rise to the top.
Same thing for the colleges. There is just not that much talent out there to have a bunch of great teams. But I don’t think that’s bad. In fact, I think it’s great for it should lead to a wide open March Madness. Because there is such parity, like in the NFL’s theory, there will be more competitiveness, which should lead to more excitement. When was the last time that a team won the championship without ever being ranked #1 during the season? That would be last season when Kansas won even though never being ranked first. Surprisingly, over the last 5 seasons, only one eventual champion was ever ranked number one during that season. That was Florida during the 2006-07 season. So much for having been the top dog in the polls. Also, you have to question who’s doing the rankings and how they do it.
With UNC’s fine win over Duke…. another good game by the way…… it looks like Carolina will get that kiss of death. That will complete UNC’s circle, back to number one where they started the season.
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