[Includes 2024 Tournament Results Not 2025]
Every year the “madness” is put into March Madness with plenty of upsets – especially in the first round of games. But just how often do they happen? And based on tournament history, what are your chances for accurately picking that 15 seed over 2 seed upset?
How many times has the 16 seed beaten the #1? Since 1985, the #16 seed has beaten the #1 seed….just twice. The 16 seed has a pretty darn good record at 150-2.
How man times has the 15 seed beaten the #2 seed? It is still very rare, but the #15 seed has won 11 times – so the 15 seed has a record of 141-11 since 1985.
How man times has the 14 seed beaten the #3 seed? This has happened 22 times since 1985 – so about once every 9 games.
| 16 defeats 1 | 15 defeats 2 | 14 defeats 3 | 13 defeats 4 | 12 defeats 5 | 11 defeats 6 | 10 defeats 7 | 9 defeats 8 | |
| Games Played: 1985-2023 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 | 160 |
| # Upsets | 2 | 11 | 24 | 33 | 57 | 58 | 60 | 71 |
| % Upsets | 1.25% | 6.88% | 15.00% | 20.63% | 35.63% | 36.25% | 37.50% | 44.38% |
March Madness Upset Data by Year
| wdt_ID | Year | 16 defeats 1 | 15 defeats 2 | 14 defeats 3 | 13 defeats 4 | 12 defeats 5 | 11 defeats 6 | 10 defeats 7 | 9 defeats 8 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2025 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 2 | 2024 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 1 |
| 3 | 2023 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 4 | 2022 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 5 | 2021 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 6 | 2020 | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | 2019 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 8 | 2018 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 9 | 2017 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 10 | 2016 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 11 | 2015 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 12 | 2014 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 |
| 13 | 2013 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 14 | 2012 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 15 | 2011 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 1 |
| 16 | 2010 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 2 |
| 17 | 2009 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 |
| 18 | 2008 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 19 | 2007 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 20 | 2006 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 21 | 2005 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 |
| 22 | 2004 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 |
| 23 | 2003 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 |
| 24 | 2002 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 |
| 25 | 2001 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 |
| 26 | 2000 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 0 |
| 27 | 1999 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| 28 | 1998 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 1 |
| 29 | 1997 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 |
| 30 | 1996 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 3 |
| 31 | 1995 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 32 | 1994 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 33 | 1993 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 |
| 34 | 1992 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 35 | 1991 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 |
| 36 | 1990 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 |
| 37 | 1989 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 4 |
| 38 | 1988 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 39 | 1987 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 40 | 1986 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 |
| 41 | 1985 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 |
| 42 | 0 | 10 | 23 | 33 | 52 | 54 | 59 | 69 |